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自本世纪60年代以来,泰国经济取得了长足的进展,与经济发展速度密切相关的人口问题对国民经济发展的制约作用越来越明显。人口发展在过去泰国经济发展中究竟起到了什么作用?在未来发展中又将会产生哪些影响?这就是本文力图探讨的两个问题。一、泰国人口发展的基本状况分析1911年,泰国进行了第一次官方人口普查,当时全国总人口为800万。1947年,总人口上升到1,744万;1981年达4,750万;1988年为5,470万。上述数字表明,从1911—1947年的36年间,泰国人口增加了1.18倍,而从1947—1988年的41年间,人口增加了2.14倍。据统计,1920年泰国人口自然增长率为1.46%,出生率为45.4‰,死亡率为30.4‰。1955年,自然增长率达3.09%,出生率为48.9‰,死亡率为18‰。1975年,自然增长率为2.25%,出生率为28.4‰,死亡率仅为5.9‰。从1980—1988年,自然增长率为1.9%,出生率为29‰,死亡率为8‰。
Since the 1960s, Thailand has made great strides in its economy. Population issues closely related to the pace of economic development have become more and more restrictive to the development of the national economy. What is the role of population development in the economic development of Thailand in the past and what impact will it have in future development? This is the two problems that this paper tries to explore. I. Basic Analysis of Population Development in Thailand In 1911, Thailand conducted its first official population census, when the total population was 8 million. In 1947, the total population increased to 17.44 million; in 1981 it reached 47.5 million; in 1988 it was 54.7 million. The above figures show that the population of Thailand increased by 1.18 times in the 36 years from 1911 to 1947, while the population increased by 2.14 times in the 41 years from 1947 to 1988. According to statistics, in 1920 the natural population growth rate of Thailand was 1.46%, the birth rate was 45.4 ‰ and the death rate was 30.4 ‰. In 1955, the natural growth rate reached 3.09%, the birth rate was 48.9% and the mortality rate was 18%. In 1975, the natural growth rate was 2.25%, the birth rate was 28.4 ‰, and the mortality rate was only 5.9 ‰. From 1980 to 1988, the natural growth rate was 1.9%, the birth rate was 29 ‰ and the mortality rate was 8 ‰.