The impact of natural mortality variations on the performance of management procedures for Spanish m

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Natural mortality rate (M) is one of the essential parameters in fishery stock assessment, however, the estimationof M is commonly rough and the changes of M due to natural and anthropogenic impacts have long been ignored.The simplification of M estimation and the influence of M variations on the assessment and management offisheries stocks have been less well understood. This study evaluated the impacts of the changes in naturalmortality of Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) on their management strategies with data-limitedmethods. We tested the performances of a variety of management procedures (MPs) with the variations of M inmackerel stock using diverse estimation methods. The results of management strategies evaluation showed thatfour management procedures DCAC, SPMSY, curE75 and minlenLopt1 were more robust to the changes of Mthan others; however, their performance were substantially influenced by the significant decrease of M from the1970s to 2017. Relative population biomass (measure as the probability of B>0.5BMSY) increased significantly withthe decrease of M, whereas the possibility of overfishing showed remarkable variations across MPs. The decreaseof M had minor effects on the long-term yield of curE75 and minlenLopt1, and reduced the fluctuation of yield(measure as the probability of AAVY<15%) for DCAC, SPMSY. In general, the different methods for M estimationshowed minor effects on the performance of MPs, whereas the temporal changes of M showed substantialinfluences. Considering the fishery status of Spanish mackerel in China, we recommended that curE75 has thebest trade-off between fishery resources exploitation and conservation, and we also proposed the potentials andissues in their implementations.
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