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现代科学技术发展很快,技术予测十分重要。日本科学技术厅曾对1971—2000年这三十年的日本科学技术发展方向做过予测调查,但由于石油危机使日本经济形势发生了重大变化,因此,又重新做了调查。调查采用的是特尔菲(Delphi)法的二次回答方式。被调查的人是从工业、科研、政府机关各界人士中挑选出来的。为了照顾刭技术予测调查的连续性,在第二次调查的过程中,尽可能把第一次被调查的人包括进去。结果,两次备有1316人回答了询问。所调查的技术课题涉及到20个领域。课题的选择同,是在
The rapid development of modern science and technology, technology is very important. Japan Agency for Science and Technology had conducted a survey on the development direction of Japan's science and technology in 1971-2000 over the past 30 years. However, due to the oil crisis, which led to major changes in the economic situation in Japan, the survey was re-conducted. The survey uses the Delphi method of the second answer. The people surveyed were selected from all walks of life in industry, scientific research and government agencies. In order to take care of the continuity of the technology-based survey, the first respondent was included in the second survey as much as possible. As a result, 1316 people answered the question twice. The surveyed technical topics involved 20 areas. The same choice of subject, is in