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本文采用估计财政乘数的方法,验证省际各财政支出项对经济增长的影响。通过对1997年至2007年省际面板数据进行分析,发现不同的财政支出项乘数大小和方向存在差异;利用金融危机作为实验,对比2008年后地方政府财政支出乘数的变化,发现地方政府科教支出乘数在金融危机后有显著增长,但卫生经费支出乘数在危机前后并无显著差别;这说明2008年之后,地方政府大规模的卫生经费投入并未发挥“促增长”的作用,其原因可能是地方政府的卫生投入政策不具有稳定性和连续性。
In this paper, we use the method of estimating the financial multiplier to verify the impact of various fiscal expenditure items on economic growth in the province. Through the analysis of provincial panel data from 1997 to 2007, it is found that there are differences in the size and direction of different expenditure expenditure multiples; using the financial crisis as an experiment, comparing the change of the local government’s fiscal expenditure multiplier after 2008, it finds that local governments The expenditure multiplier of science and education increased significantly after the financial crisis, but the expenditure multiplication of health did not make any significant difference before and after the crisis. This shows that after 2008, the large-scale investment in health care by local governments did not play a role of “promoting growth” The reason may be that the local government’s health investment policy does not have stability and continuity.