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由于油井的停产具有很大的随机性 ,而目前对油井的停产基本没有预测手段 ,针对这一现象 ,以实际生产过程中的停产井为依据 ,利用GM( 1 ,1 )灰色预测理论对油田的停产井进行分析预测。该理论是通过选取“阈值”对原始停产井数的数据进行处理 ,形成新的数据列 ,继续寻找数据间的规律。这样就把对停产井数的预测转化为对“停产”这一灾变出现时刻的预测 ,从而做到提前预报 ,并能及时采取相应的补救措施 ,减少工作中的盲目性 ,掌握生产主动权 ,以指导油田的高效开发。利用该方法模拟结果与实际情况比较吻合。表2参 2 (刘红新摘 )
Due to the great randomness of the shutdown of the oil well, there are basically no means of forecasting the shutdown of the oil well. According to this phenomenon, based on the shutdown wells in the actual production process, the gray prediction theory of GM (1, 1) Of the shutdown wells for analysis and forecast. The theory is to select the “threshold” to process the data of the original shutdown wells to form a new data column and continue to search for the rules between the data. In this way, the prediction of the number of shutdown wells is transformed into the prediction of the moment when the disaster is halted because of the “shutdown”, so that the prediction can be made in advance and corresponding remedial measures can be taken in time to reduce the blindness in the work, master the initiative in production, To guide the efficient development of the oil field. Using this method, the simulation results are in good agreement with the actual situation. Table 2 reference 2 (Liu Hong new pick)