论文部分内容阅读
本文通过构建湖北省的房地产合成指数,利用自相关滞后分布模型研究房地产景气变化与宏观经济和金融变量之间的计量关系。由此,本文对湖北省房地产景气波动的四个周期进行判别,寻找其中的政策冲击因素。本文发现,投资和居民是影响房地产景气的主要经济变量；而存款、真实利率、居民储蓄和中长期贷款是影响房地产景气的主要金融变量。据此,本文提出若干政策建议
In this paper, we construct the index of real estate complex in Hubei Province, and use the autocorrelation lag distribution model to study the relationship between real estate boom and macroeconomic and financial variables. Therefore, this article discriminates the four cycles of real estate boom in Hubei Province, and looks for the policy impact factors. This paper finds that investment and residents are the main economic variables that affect the real estate boom, while deposits, real interest rates, household savings and long-term loans are the main financial variables that affect the real estate boom. Accordingly, this article made a number of policy recommendations