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在全球甲型H1N1流感大流行背景下,本文在充分考虑各国甲流感死亡率可能存在个体混合效应、独立效应、相关效应及空间相关效应基础上,运用Bayes计量分析框架下的模型选择标准确定描述各国甲流感死亡率的最优模型,并基于该模型对不同国家甲流感死亡率进行估算。结果显示:个体独立、空间相关效应模型能很好拟合各国甲流感疫情统计数据,利用该模型估算的全球甲流感平均死亡率为0.577%。
In the context of the global influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, this paper takes into account the possible individual mixture effects, independent effects, related effects and spatial correlation effects of influenza A in various countries, and uses the model selection criteria under the Bayesian metric analysis framework to determine the description Based on the model, the mortality of influenza A in different countries was estimated. The results showed that individual independent and spatially correlated effect models fitted well the epidemic statistics of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in various countries, and the average global mortality rate estimated by this model was 0.577%.