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本文在Lucas模型基础上,引入存在“严重衰退”状态的消费增长过程,重新估算中国经济周期的福利成本,修正了“Lucas论断”。通过本文模型的计算,我们得出:(1)应用存在“严重衰退”状态的福利成本模型估算的中国经济波动的福利成本远远高于Lucas模型估算的结果。在合理的参数范围内,前者一般是后者的10倍左右。因此,对于中国经济而言,旨在防止“严重衰退”状态发生的宏观稳定政策的福利收益相当大。(2)对于中国经济而言,降低“严重衰退”状态发生的概率(从0.017降低到0.003)所获得的福利收益大约是Lucas模型结果的3～4倍。这表明,中国宏观稳定政策的收益主要来源于降低“严重衰退”状态的发生概率,而不是减少通常意义上的经济波动。(3)在相对风险规避系数取值范围内(γ小于6),中国经济波动的福利成本与美国经济波动的福利成本相当接近。这从某种程度上说明了存在“严重衰退”状态的福利成本模型适用于不同的经济体。
Based on the Lucas model, this paper introduces the process of consumption growth with the state of “serious recession”, re-estimates the welfare cost of China’s economic cycle, and modifies “Lucas’s thesis ”. Through the calculation of this model, we draw: (1) The welfare cost of China’s economic fluctuation estimated using the welfare cost model with the status of “serious recession ” is much higher than that estimated by the Lucas model. Within a reasonable range of parameters, the former is generally about 10 times the latter. Therefore, for the Chinese economy, the welfare benefits of macro-stability policies aimed at preventing the occurrence of a “serious recession” are quite substantial. (2) For the Chinese economy, the reduction of the probability of a “serious recession” (from 0.017 to 0.003) yields a benefit gain of about three to four times that of the Lucas model. This shows that the benefits of China’s macro-stability policy mainly come from reducing the probability of a “serious recession” rather than reducing economic fluctuations in the usual sense. (3) In the range of the relative risk aversion coefficient (γ is less than 6), the welfare cost of China’s economic fluctuations is quite close to the welfare cost of the U.S. economy. To some extent, this shows that the welfare cost model with the “serious recession” status is applicable to different economies.