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随着陆上“丝绸之路经济带”建设的进一步推进,中国对地处丝绸之路中亚经济带核心区的中亚5国的直接投资急剧增长。基于2003~2013年中国对中亚5国OFDI的数据,在投资引力模型的分析框架下,采用动态面板差分GMM和系统GMM估计方法,对中国在中亚地区的OFDI动因进行深入的分析研究,研究结论显示:一方面,获取中亚5国丰富的自然资源是中国进行OFDI的重要动机,东道国矿产、石油等自然资源密集度越高,中国OFDI的流入就越多。另一方面,东道国的产业内贸易程度越高,越能吸引中国的OFDI流入,这是中国产业结构转型升级的必然结果,伴随着一些产业向周边发展中国家的转移,以便从事专业化生产,提高生产分割效率,发挥规模经济优势。最后针对实证结果提出意见和对策。
With the further advancement of the onshore “Silk Road Economic Belt,” China’s direct investment in the five Central Asian countries located in the core area of the Silk Road Central Asia Economic Zone has risen sharply. Based on the data of OFDI from five countries in Central Asia from 2003 to 2013, using dynamic panel differential GMM and system GMM estimation methods under the framework of investment gravity model, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of China’s OFDI motivation in Central Asia. The conclusions of the study show that on the one hand, access to abundant natural resources of the five Central Asian countries is an important motivation for China to implement OFDI. The more natural mineral resources such as minerals and petroleum in the host country are, the more OFDI flows into China. On the other hand, the higher degree of intra-industry trade in the host country can attract the inflow of OFDI from China. This is an inevitable result of the transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial structure. Along with the transfer of some industries to the surrounding developing countries in order to engage in specialized production, Improve the efficiency of production division, give full play to economies of scale. Finally, according to the results of the empirical comments and countermeasures.