通过建立包含我国FDI开放度、出口贸易相对规模、农村劳动力非农就业比例三个变量的模型,运用时间序列分析考察三者之间的格兰杰因果关系效应,用以解释FDI流入和出口贸易对中国农村劳动力非农就业的实际影响及影响程度。分析表明,对外商直接投资的开放度提高在短期内对我国非农就业增长率的影响为负,但长期效应为正;出口贸易规模增长在短期内对我国农村劳动力的非农就业的影响为正,但长期效益为负;此外,农村劳动力非农就业的增长对我国出口发展的长期效应为负。 By establishing a model that includes three variables: the degree of openness of FDI in our country, the relative size of export trade and the proportion of non-agricultural employment in rural labor force, we use the time series analysis to examine the Granger causality effect among the three to explain the inflow and export of FDI The actual impact and impact of non-farm employment on rural labor force in China. The analysis shows that the increase of the openness to foreign direct investment has a negative impact on the growth rate of non-agricultural employment in our country in the short run, but the long-term effect is positive. The growth of export trade in a short period of time affects the non-agricultural employment of rural labor force in China Positive, but negative long-term benefits. In addition, the long-term effect of the growth of non-farm employment in rural labor on China’s exports is negative.