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本文通过MS-VAR模型分析上海融入经济全球化对其经济和开放红利的影响,发现在上海融入全球化程度提升的阶段,实际产出稳定增长,最终消费和进出口贸易额占GDP比值下降后趋于稳定,金融市场发展和通胀变化不大。结合纽约、伦敦和东京开放红利获得的历史,我们认为未来上海在融入经济全球化进程中可能获得的开放红利包括:实际产出稳定增长、全球FDI支持实体经济、全球消费集聚、经济结构成功转型、制度质量提升、金融部门发展、跨国业务枢纽形成和国际人才汇集。
This article analyzes the impact of Shanghai’s integration into economic globalization on its economy and its open dividend by MS-VAR model. It finds that after Shanghai merged into the stage of globalization, real output increased steadily and the ratio of final consumption, import and export trade to GDP dropped Stabilization led to little change in financial market development and inflation. In light of the history of the open dividends in New York, London and Tokyo, we think the open dividends that Shanghai may gain in the process of integrating itself into economic globalization in the future include the steady growth of real output, the success of global FDI in supporting the real economy, the global consumption agglomeration and the successful transformation of economic structure , Improvement of system quality, development of financial sector, formation of transnational business hub and pooling of international talents.