【摘 要】
：
如何给出能够反映近场大震特点的坝址的最大可信地震是在我国西部修建高坝时需要考虑的重要问题.以我国西部重大水电工程沙牌拱坝为例,结合有限断层模型和地震学随机方法,将
【机 构】
：
中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国水利水电科学研究院工程抗震研究中心
论文部分内容阅读
如何给出能够反映近场大震特点的坝址的最大可信地震是在我国西部修建高坝时需要考虑的重要问题.以我国西部重大水电工程沙牌拱坝为例,结合有限断层模型和地震学随机方法,将震源视为三维的空间面源,进行坝址在近场大震条件下的最大可信地震研究.选择茂县地办台站(051MXT)记录,对汶川地震的震源模型和参数进行校核,作为本文研究的模型和参数依据.确定对沙牌坝址区域影响最大的发震构造为龙门山断裂带.(1)假定龙门山中央断裂未来再次发生Ms8.0级地震,设置不同高危险的震源模型,比较结果显示,对沙牌坝址而言汶川地震不是最大潜在地震,最大凹凸体的能量中心距坝址最近的震源形式最危险,坝址的峰值加速度一般不超过380 cm/s2.(2)若发震能力稍弱的龙门山后山断裂未来发生Mw7.5级地震,遵循两种思路考虑震源的不确定性,即设置最危险震源和随机设定大量震源模型,且均计人关键参数的不确定性.两种思路合成的沙牌坝址的峰值加速度非常接近,根据工程重要性取较大值,得到沙牌坝址的峰值加速度为735 cm/s2.
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