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在探讨人民币汇率问题时,一般认为汇率升值会引起出口价格的上升,本文指出如果考虑进口价格对出口价格的影响,那么出口价格的变动幅度将小于汇率的变动幅度,因此在讨论贸易弹性时有必要区分汇率弹性和价格弹性这两个概念;在介绍了China_QEM①模型中的贸易模块以及该模块与其他模块的相互作用机制之后,阐述了汇率变化对出口价格水平以及进出口贸易的影响机理;最后通过政策模拟,对我国进出口的汇率弹性和价格弹性给出了定量的计算结果。
When discussing the RMB exchange rate issue, it is generally believed that the appreciation of the exchange rate will lead to an increase in the export price. This paper points out that if we consider the impact of the import price on the export price, the change in the export price will be smaller than the exchange rate. Therefore, when discussing the trade elasticity It is necessary to distinguish the two concepts of exchange rate elasticity and price elasticity. After introducing the trade module in China_QEM① model and the interaction mechanism between this module and other modules, the mechanism of the exchange rate changes on the export price level and the import and export trade is expounded. Finally Through the policy simulation, the quantitative calculation results are given for the exchange rate flexibility and price elasticity of China’s import and export.