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1960年,美国麻省理工学院教授洛伦兹研究“长期天气预报”问题时,在计算机上用一组简化模型模拟天气的演变。他原本的意图是利用计算机的高速运算来提高天气预报的准确性。但是,事与愿违,多次计算表明,初始条件的极微小差异,会导致计算结果的很大不同,而那些被忽略的次要因素却可能对预报结果产生重大影响,导致错误的结论洛伦兹用一种形象的比喻来表达他的这个发现:一只小小的蝴蝶在巴西上空煽动翅膀,可能在一个月后的美国得克萨斯州会引起一场风暴这就是混沌学中著名的“蝴蝶效应”对此,我们还可以用在西方流传的一首民谣做形象的说明,这首民谣说:失了一颗铁钉,丢了一只马蹄铁;丢了一只马蹄铁,折了一匹战马;折了一匹战马,损了一位将军;损了一位将军,输了一场战争;输了一场战争,亡了一个帝国。
In 1960, when Lorentz, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, studied the issue of “long-term weather forecasting,” a set of simplified models were used to simulate the evolution of the weather on computers. His original intention was to use the computer’s high-speed computing to improve the accuracy of the weather forecast. However, contrary to expectations, multiple calculations show that very small differences in initial conditions can lead to very different calculated results, while those that are neglected may have a significant impact on the forecast results, leading to erroneous conclusions. Lorentz A figurative metaphor to express his discovery: A small butterfly flutters over Brazil, possibly causing a storm in Texas a month later. This is the famous “butterfly effect” in chaos Here, we can also use the image of a folk song spread in the West to do the image of the first ballad said: lost a nails, lost a horseshoe; lost a horseshoe, folded a horse; folded A war horse, a loss of a general; lost a general, lost a war; lost a war, the death of an empire.