尽管新型墙体材料有许多优点,但是普通实心粘土砖仍有广大市场。本文提出期望成本概念,建立一个简单的数学模型,将影响用户选择使用二者的因素都重化成为期望成本,期望成本小者将为用户使用。分析认为通过法令法规的政策指引和教育而进行技术推广能够降低新型墙体材料的期望成本,从而引导用户主动选择新型墙体材料。 Although there are many advantages for new wall materials, ordinary solid clay bricks still have a large market. In this paper, the concept of expected cost is proposed, a simple mathematical model is established, and the factors influencing the user’s choice to use both are all reduced to the expected cost, and those with the lower expected cost will be used by the user. The analysis believes that the promotion of technology through policy guidance and education of laws and regulations can reduce the expected cost of new wall materials and guide users to actively choose new wall materials.