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中国化肥施用量已超过其经济意义上的最优施用量。基于固定观察点2003-2012年粮食连续种植的农户面板数据,对江苏省小麦和稻谷生产中的化肥过量施用程度进行评价,并实证分析其影响因素。结果表明,江苏省小麦的化肥过量施用程度为14.13%,稻谷为44.15%。其中,受教育水平、劳动力非农转移和土地租入比例一定程度上促进了化肥的过量施用,而家庭人均收入、农业技术培训和耕地规模效应则对化肥过量施用起一定的抑制作用,此外,上一年粮价也会对化肥用量产生一定的影响。应从施肥观念、施肥技术、新型农业经营主体培育、土地流转服务体系及粮食市场体制等方面做出完善。
China’s chemical fertilizer application has exceeded its economic significance of the optimal application. Based on the panel data of farmer households with continuous observation of grain production during 2003-2012 in fixed observation stations, the degree of over-fertilization of wheat in paddy and rice production in Jiangsu Province was evaluated and the influencing factors were analyzed empirically. The results showed that the level of over-fertilization of wheat in Jiangsu Province was 14.13% and that of rice was 44.15%. Among them, the level of education, non-agricultural labor force transfer and the proportion of land leased to some extent promoted the over-fertilization of fertilizers, while family per capita income, agricultural technology training and the scale effect of cultivated land played a role in inhibiting the over-fertilization of chemical fertilizers. In addition, The previous year’s grain prices will also have a certain impact on the amount of fertilizer. It should be perfected in the aspects of fertilization concept, fertilization technology, cultivation of new agricultural management subjects, land circulation service system and grain market system.