2015年中国经济增速继续回落,重要经济指标比较前期高点已经“腰斩”。受其影响,钢材、矿石等商品需求疲弱,PPI指数持续40多个月下降,结构性通缩局面开始显现。展望2016年宏观经济及钢材市场走势,总体来看,一些需求负面因素将在上半年集中显现,尤其是美联储加息,将会成为钢材及矿石市场行情的最后一击。但进入下半年后,因为决策层加码稳增长举措,并且前期所出台的宽松政策陆续显效,宏观经济或许利空出尽后触底回升,从而带动价格行情反弹。 In 2015, China’s economic growth continued to drop, and the key economic indicators have already reached their “previous highs”. Affected by the weak demand for steel, ore and other commodities, the PPI index lasted for more than 40 months and structural deflationary conditions began to emerge. Looking ahead to the macroeconomic and steel market trends in 2016, on the whole, some negative factors of demand will be concentrated in the first half of the year. In particular, the rate hike by the Federal Reserve will be the last blow to the market of steel and ore. However, after the second half of the year, the macroeconomic policy may hit a bottom due to the lackluster economy and lead the price rebound.