测定泡沫已属不易,预测泡沫破裂的具体时间则更是名声的一种冒险。因为预测中国房地产而损害了名声的名人,前有在2003年6月就预测“房地产冬天来了”的任志强,最近则有近年来中国内地声名大噪的投行经济学家谢国忠。2004年10月,谢国忠在“有史以来最大的地产泡沫将在近期破裂”的文章中声称,上海这个有史以来最大的地产泡沫将在近期破裂。他断言,泡沫破裂的时间“仅仅是几个月,而不是一年”。然而,大半年 Determination of the foam is not easy, the prediction of a specific time bubble rupture is even more a reputation for an adventure. Ren Zhiqiang, who predicted the arrival of real estate in winter in June 2003 and formerly known as the influential investment bank economist in China in recent years, said Xie Guozhong, an economist who had made a name for itself in the prediction of real estate in China. In October 2004, Xie Guozhong claimed in the article “The biggest property bubble ever burst in the near future,” claiming that Shanghai, the largest real estate bubble in history, will burst in the near future. He asserted that the bubble burst “just for a few months instead of a year.” However, most of the year