住宅发展预测为制定住宅发展长远规划提供基本依据,是合理进行住宅建设不可缺少的一环(图1)。苏联在住宅发展预测方面积累了比较丰富的经验。苏联认为,住宅的空间组织主要取决于社会因素(人及其活动)、技术因素(结构、设备和物品)和自然因素(周围的自然环境和气候条件),其中,社 The residential development forecast provides the basic basis for formulating long-term plans for residential development and is an indispensable part of rational housing construction (Figure 1). The Soviet Union has accumulated rich experience in residential development forecasting. The Soviet Union believes that the spatial organization of housing depends mainly on social factors (people and their activities), technological factors (structure, equipment, and goods) and natural factors (the surrounding natural environment and climatic conditions).