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5月11日公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数(见图1)为77.8,好于预期及4月的76.4,为连续第9个月上升,达到2008年以来的最高水平,显示美国人对本国经济前景预期乐观。受油价下跌影响,4月美国进口物价按月回落0.5%,为半年来首次下降,并创去年6月以来最大跌幅;出口物价按月升0.4%,核心CPI稳步上行(见图2),表明美国经济正在缓慢复苏。4月份美国失业率继续下滑至8.1%,为2009年1月以来最低水平。美国劳工部5月1 0日公布:上周经季节调整的申请失业金人数为36.7万人,较前一周减少1,000人,少于预期的36.9万人(见图3)。显示美国就业市场在逐渐改善。但非农业部门新增就业岗位增加缓慢,低于市场预期中值。所以需谨慎看待就业好转的前景。
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Figure 1), released on May 11, was 77.8, better-than-expected and 76.4 in April, the 9th straight month of gains, reaching the highest level since 2008, Economic outlook is optimistic. Affected by the drop in oil prices, the U.S. import price dropped 0.5% MoM in April, its first decline in six months and the largest drop since June last year. The export price rose 0.4% MoM and the core CPI went up steadily (Chart 2) The U.S. economy is slowly recovering. US unemployment rate continued to decline in April to 8.1%, the lowest level since January 2009. The U.S. Labor Department announced on May 10: The number of seasonally adjusted jobless claims last week was 367,000, down 1,000 from the previous week and below the expected 369,000 (see Figure 3). Shows that the U.S. job market is gradually improving. But the non-agricultural sector added jobs slow to grow, lower than the market expected median. Therefore, we must be cautious about the prospect of employment improvement.