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我国降低碳排放强度的低碳发展最终必须落实到促进人类发展。已有研究忽略了两者之间的双向反馈机制。通过采用协整检验与格兰杰因果关系检验发现,中国的碳排放强度变化和人类发展指数(HDI)之间存在着长期稳定关系,并且双方互为格兰杰原因。这表明,从长期看我国碳排放强度控制和人文发展的目标是一致的,不仅降低碳排放强度能够促进以人文发展为基础的社会和谐发展,而且人类发展反过来也能推动我国碳排放强度控制目标的实现。当前我国应同时采取提升HDI和促进碳排放强度降低的政策组合。
The low-carbon development in China that reduces the intensity of carbon emissions must eventually be implemented to promote human development. Existing research has ignored the two-way feedback mechanism between the two. By using cointegration test and Granger causality test, it is found that there is a long-term and stable relationship between changes in carbon intensity in China and the HDI, and the two parties are Granger reasons. This shows that in the long term, China’s carbon emission intensity control and human development goals are consistent, not only to reduce carbon intensity can promote humanistic development based on the harmonious development of society, and human development can in turn also promote China’s carbon intensity control The realization of goals. At present, China should also take a combination of policy to enhance HDI and reduce the intensity of carbon emissions.