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根据山东省 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年气象与粮食产量资料 ,利用统计分析方法 ,分析了气候变化、农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。研究表明 :① 2 0世纪 6 0年代以来 ,山东省气候有变暖和变干的趋势 ,各季节中 ,变暖趋势最明显的是冬季 ,变干表现最突出的是夏季 ;②气温和降水是造成山东省粮食产量波动的主要原因 ,在“暖干”气候背景下 ,气温与气候产量为负相关 ,降水量与气候产量呈较显著的正相关 ;③农业自然灾害是造成粮食单产产生波动的主要原因之一。
Based on the data of meteorological and grain yield from 1996 to 2000 in Shandong Province, the influence of climate change and agricultural natural disasters on grain yield was analyzed by statistical analysis method. The results show that: ① Since the 1960s, the climate in Shandong Province has become warmer and drier. In each season, the trend of warming is most obvious in winter and the most prominent in dry season is summer; ② the temperature and precipitation are The main reason causing the fluctuation of grain output in Shandong Province is the negative correlation between temperature and climate output under the background of “warm-dry” climate, and the precipitation is positively correlated with the climate output; ③The agricultural natural disasters caused the fluctuation of grain yield One of the main reasons.