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文章测算了河北省1980～2009年能源消费引起的碳排放总量并对其进行了分解研究,主要包括两个方面:第一,对碳排放量环比增速进行了不同种类化石能源的分解测算;第二,基于LMDI指数分解法对碳排放变动量进行了四种效应分解,分别为:碳强度效应、能源强度效应、经济效应和人口效应,并从效应贡献量及贡献率两方面分析了其时序变化规律。结果表明:河北省1980～2009年能源消费引起的碳排放总量一直趋于上升,煤炭消费引起的碳排放量环比增速变动相对平稳,石油、天然气消费引起的碳排放量环比增速变动幅度较大。对碳排放变动量的效应分解方面,经济效应和能源强度效应对碳排放变动量的作用显著且贡献率较大,碳强度效应和人口效应对碳排放变动量的作用不够显著且贡献率较小。
The paper estimates the total amount of carbon emissions caused by energy consumption in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2009 and makes a study on its decomposition. The study mainly includes two aspects. First, the disaggregation of different types of fossil fuels is calculated for the growth rate of carbon emissions ; Secondly, based on the LMDI exponential decomposition, we decompose carbon emissions by four effects: carbon intensity effect, energy intensity effect, economic effect and population effect, and analyze the effect contribution and contribution rate from two aspects The timing changes. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions caused by energy consumption in Hebei Province tends to rise from 1980 to 2009, the relative growth rate of carbon emissions caused by coal consumption is relatively stable, the growth rate of carbon emissions due to the consumption of oil and natural gas Larger. In terms of the effect decomposition of changes in carbon emissions, economic effects and energy intensity effects have a significant effect on carbon emission changes and their contribution rate is large. The effects of carbon intensity and population effects on carbon emission fluctuation are not significant and the contribution rate is small .