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广东省经济工作会议上提出的把有效增长作为今年的工作思路的提法,把握了广东经济工作的全局,抓住了广东经济发展中的主要矛盾,体现了转变经济增长方式的基本要求。 要实现有效增长,就要改善资源配置,调整产业结构。下面,我想就这个方面讲几点看法: 一、什么是制约广东经济发展的主要障碍 广东是全国经济高增长的省份,GDP增长率一般高于全国平均水平3个百分点。1979年至1995年的17年,广东GDP增长近9倍,GDP占全国的份额已由5.15％升高为9.3％。但是,1996年广东GDP增长率降为11％,比上年下滑4个百分点,比1992年下滑11个百分点。GDP增长率下滑有种种因素,其中产业结构失调,已成为制约GDP高增长的主要障碍。 三年来,宏观经济形势出现了新的重大转折:1993年开始,广东经济发展的主要矛盾是总量失衡、需求膨胀,集中表现为物价升幅过高。从1993年开始,广东同全国一样,把控制总量的治胀工作放在经济工作的首位。 经过40个月全国范围的财政金融紧缩,总供给与总需求已经平衡,广东物价升幅已回落到4.5％。它表明货币流通量已经正常,需求膨胀这个主要矛盾已经解决,宏观调控目标已经到位,而且市场疲软现象已经出现。
The proposal put forward at the Economic Work Conference of Guangdong Province that effective growth serves as a reference for this year’s work train of thought grasped the overall situation of economic work in Guangdong and seized the major contradictions in the economic development of Guangdong and embodied the basic requirements for transforming the mode of economic growth. To achieve effective growth, we must improve the allocation of resources and adjust the industrial structure. Below, I would like to make some comments on this aspect: 1. What are the major obstacles to the economic development in Guangdong? Guangdong is a province with a high growth rate in the country. Its GDP growth rate is generally 3% higher than the national average. In the 17 years from 1979 to 1995, Guangdong’s GDP increased nearly nine-fold and its share of GDP in the country rose from 5.15% to 9.3%. However, in 1996 Guangdong’s GDP growth rate dropped to 11%, down 4 percentage points from the previous year and down 11 percentage points from 1992. The decline of GDP growth has various factors, among which the imbalanced industrial structure has become a major obstacle to the high growth of GDP. In the past three years, the macroeconomic situation has witnessed a major new turning point: starting from 1993, the main contradiction in the economic development in Guangdong was the imbalance of the total demand and the swelling demand, which concentrated on the over-high price hikes. Since 1993, like other parts of the country, Guangdong has placed the control of inflation in the first place in its economic work. After 40 months of nationwide fiscal tightening, the total supply and total demand have been balanced. The price increase in Guangdong has dropped to 4.5%. It shows that the main contradiction between the normalcy of the liquidity and the expansion in demand has been solved, the objective of macroeconomic regulation and control has been put in place, and the market weakness has emerged.