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针对中等发达地区次均医疗费用增长、医疗需求潜在释放和居民收入增长趋势建立社会医疗保险收支平衡预测模型。研究结果表明,如果不控制次均医疗费用的增长,在中等发达地区社会医疗保险制度建立和完善过程中,社会医疗保险基金每增加1元保费收入,必须面对2元左右的医疗费用支出,医保收支失衡在所难免。
A model for predicting the balance of social health insurance expenditures was established in response to the growth of the average medical cost in medium-developed regions, the potential release of medical demand and the growth of residents’ income. The results of the study indicate that if the increase in the average cost of medical care is not controlled, in the establishment and improvement of the social health insurance system in the medium-developed regions, the social health insurance fund will have to face a medical expenditure of about 2 yuan for each additional premium of 1 yuan. The balance of health insurance expenditures is inevitable.