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作为世界最主要的贸易国和“世界加工工厂”的中国,商品贸易已成为影响国内碳排放的重要因素。本文首先采用投入产出分析方法,对2002年、2005年及2007年我国21个贸易产业部门出口商品中的内涵碳排进行测算,继而利用投入产出偏差模型将我国2002～2005年及2005～2007年间出口商品中的内涵碳排变化进行因素分解。结果显示,技术效应成为促进我国出口商品内涵碳排量减少的主要因素;结构效应对减排由负效应转为正效应,我国贸易结构虽有所改善,但对减排贡献度还不高,仍有很大潜力,本文对此提出了相应的优化贸易结构的政策建议。
As the world’s leading trading nation and China’s “world processing factory”, commodity trade has become an important factor affecting domestic carbon emissions. This article first uses the input-output analysis method to measure the carbon content in the export commodities of China’s 21 trade sectors in 2002, 2005, and 2007, and then uses the input-output bias model to make China’s 2002-2005 and 2005- Changes in carbon content in the export commodities during 2007 were factorized. The results show that the technical effect has become a major factor in promoting the reduction of China’s export commodity carbon emissions; the structural effect has a positive effect on the reduction of emission reduction. Although China’s trade structure has improved, it has not contributed much to the reduction. There is still great potential. This article proposes corresponding policy recommendations for optimizing the trade structure.