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目的分析江西省南昌市1998-2007年霍乱发生与流行与气象因素的关系,利用气象因素建立数学模型预测霍乱发病情况。方法收集1998-2007年南昌市霍乱月平均发病数与气象因素(包括月平均气温、气压、相对湿度、降雨量、风速、日照时数)数据,应用CurveExpert 1.3和SPSS 11.5软件进行霍乱发病与气象因素模型拟合和分析,根据相关参数对模型加以选择。结果霍乱月平均发病数分别与月平均气温、月平均日照时数呈正相关,与月平均气压呈负相关;月平均气温与霍乱月平均发病数曲线拟合良好,可应用Gunary model对霍乱发病进行预测;但是在排除共线性和混杂因素后,直线回归模型显示月平均温度仅能解释霍乱发病的37.4%。结论从Gunarymodel模型的拟合情况和月平均温度对霍乱月平均发病的解释度来分析,一方面Gunary model模型实时分析温度与霍乱发病情况,提示霍乱发生的可能性;另一方面模型预测结果要根据实际情况进行分析和判断。
Objective To analyze the relationship between cholera occurrence and epidemic and meteorological factors from 1998 to 2007 in Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province. The mathematical model of meteorological factors was used to predict the incidence of cholera. Methods The average monthly incidence of cholera and meteorological factors (including monthly mean temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and sunshine hours) in Nanchang City from 1998 to 2007 were collected. CurveExpert 1.3 and SPSS 11.5 software were used to analyze the prevalence of cholera and meteorology Factor model fitting and analysis, according to the relevant parameters of the model to be selected. Results The monthly mean incidence of cholera was positively correlated with monthly average temperature and monthly average sunshine hours and negatively correlated with monthly mean air pressure. The average monthly temperature and cholera monthly average incidence curve fitted well, and the application of Gunary model to cholera onset However, after excluding the collinearity and confounding factors, the linear regression model showed that the monthly average temperature could explain only 37.4% of the incidence of cholera. Conclusions From the fitting of Gunarymodel model and monthly mean temperature to the average monthly incidence of cholera, the Gunary model analyzes the temperature and the incidence of cholera in real time, which indicates the possibility of cholera. On the other hand, the model predictive results According to the actual situation analysis and judgment.