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温度(T)与粘虫发育天数(N)呈反比函数关系,文献上常用NT=K表示,将发育起点温度(C)和标准误(Sk、Sc)考虑进去,推导出预测发生期的数学模式为N=K±Sk/T-(C±Sc)。用于预测时,既作加减运算,又作除法运算,况且各虫态都有各自的发育起点温度,使运算繁琐。笔者根据幂函数的性质,以偶函数取代奇函数,经过变通,归纳出预测发生期的数学模式为:K-aT_1~2-aT_2~2-……-aT_n~2=0,并根据前人对粘虫迁飞规律的研究,拟出了对粘虫进行长期预测的程序:以异地卵作主要预测虫态,以发生期预测为基础,分析发生趋势,发布长期预报。
The temperature (T) is inversely proportional to the number of developmental stages of Mythimna separata (N). NT is often used in the literature, and the onset temperature (C) and standard error (Sk, Sc) The mode is N = K ± Sk / T- (C ± Sc). Used for prediction, both for addition and subtraction, but also for the division, Moreover, each state have their own developmental starting point temperature, making the operation cumbersome. According to the nature of the power function, the author replaces the odd functions by even functions, and then through mathematical modeling, we can conclude that K-aT_1 ~ 2-aT_2 ~ 2- ...... -aT_n ~ 2 = 0, Long-term prediction of Mythimna separata (Walker) has been developed based on the study of migratory behavior of armyworm (Mythimna separata Walker): a long-term prediction of wormworms with off-site eggs, based on the prediction of occurrences, analysis of trends and release of long-term forecasts.