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本文放宽人口结构平稳假设,将总人口增长率与劳动人口增长率之差定义为老龄化率,在此基础上构建老龄经济模型,分析税收政策对老龄经济的影响。基于一定假设,老龄经济存在鞍型收敛路径,平衡增长路径上的人均收入增长率取决于技术进步率与老龄化率之差,技术进步率在积极应对人口老龄化方面至关重要。从税收角度看,资产收入税与企业利润税对老龄经济的扭曲程度较高,而劳动收入税与消费税的扭曲程度相对较低。通过削减政府支出与调整税收结构,减税不仅可以提高均衡的资本水平,若能够激励经济主体积极创新,还将会提高平衡路径上人均收入的增长速度。一定条件下,老龄经济中将会存在正的最优税率。
This paper relaxes the assumption of a smooth population structure, defines the difference between the growth rate of the total population and the growth rate of the labor force as the rate of aging, and on this basis, builds the model of the aging economy and analyzes the impact of the taxation policy on the aging economy. Based on certain assumptions, there exists a saddle-shaped convergence path in the aging economy. The growth rate of per capita income on the path of balanced growth depends on the difference between the technological progress rate and the aging rate. The technological progress rate is crucial in actively coping with population aging. From the point of view of taxation, asset-income tax and corporate profits tax have a higher distorting effect on the aged economy, while the distortions of labor income tax and consumption tax are relatively low. By cutting government spending and adjusting the tax structure, tax cuts can not only raise the equilibrium capital level but also boost the per capita income growth in the balanced path if it is to be able to inspire active innovations by economic actors. Under certain conditions, there will be a positive optimal tax rate in the aging economy.