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进行北京市城区牙科人力资源配置的研究 ,为在我国城市地区牙科人力资源区域规划提供依据。方法 采用分层、整群、随机抽样方法 ,抽取北京市区实际人口所有年龄组 15 17人及112所口腔医疗机构资料进行分析。利用卫生服务需要与需求法和比例类推法在 5个模式下计算对牙科人力的需要量 ,并作出预测。结果 最低需要总量为 2 34 6人～ 2 849人 ,最高需要总量 745 0人～ 90 5 2人。预测 2 0 0 5年需要量 ,1799～ 6 143人 ;2 0 10年 ,395 3～ 6 6 37人 ;牙医人口比 1∶40 14～ 1∶2 390。结论 牙科人力供需不匹配主要表现为牙科人力相对不足。现阶段主要应对牙科人力的存量进行调整 ,增量投向的重点放在牙科服务需求量大的项目上
The study on the allocation of dental human resources in urban areas of Beijing provides a basis for the planning of dental human resources in urban areas of China. Methods Using stratified, cluster, and random sampling methods, the data of 15 17 people and 112 oral medical institutions of all age groups in the actual population of Beijing were analyzed. Use the health service needs and needs law and proportional analogy to calculate the demand for dental manpower in five modes and make predictions. Results The minimum required total amount was 2 34 6 to 2 849, and the maximum required total was 745 0 to 905. The demand for 2005 was estimated to be 1,799 to 6,143; in 2010, 395 to 367, and the population of dentists was 1:40 14 to 1:2,390. Conclusion The mismatch between supply and demand of dental manpower is mainly reflected in the relative lack of dental manpower. At this stage, it is mainly necessary to adjust the stock of dental manpower. The focus of incremental investment is on projects with a large demand for dental services.