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目的了解广州市大气PM_(2.5)暴露对居民每日死亡的影响及其空间分布特征。方法收集2013年1月1日—2014年12月31日期间广州市十二个区(县级市)31个大气监测站点的PM_(2.5)每日数据、气象数据和居民每日死亡数据,采用克里格插值模型和分布滞后非线性模型的时间序列分析方法,分别从全市及12个行政区域的大气PM_(2.5)污染状况及其对居民每日死亡的影响进行评估分析。结果研究期间,全市PM_(2.5)的年平均暴露浓度为49.5±25.6μg/m3,呈西、南部区域PM_(2.5)污染重,东北区域相对较低的区域分布特征;全市范围PM_(2.5)暴露与每日总非意外死亡的滞后累积最大效应RR为1.017(1.001,1.034;95%CI);白云区、从化区、南沙区、越秀区和荔湾区PM_(2.5)暴露与每日总非意外死亡最佳滞后效应RR值范围1.010~1.014(此为各区RR值范围,而非95%CI),滞后累积最大效应RR值范围1.010~1.057(此为各区RR值范围,而非95%CI);从化区、南沙区、越秀区和荔湾区PM_(2.5)暴露与每日心血管系统疾病死亡的最佳滞后效应RR值范围1.006~1.021(此为各区RR值范围,而非95%CI),滞后累积最大效应RR值范围1.017~1.059(此为各区RR值范围,而非95%CI);南沙区和越秀区PM_(2.5)暴露与每日呼吸系统疾病死亡的最佳滞后效应RR值分别为1.004和1.034,滞后累积最大效应RR值分别为1.018和1.110。结论广州市不同区域大气PM_(2.5)暴露对当地居民每日死亡的影响各有不同;呈现南、北两端和西部部分人口密集,交通拥挤的区域风险较高,其他区域风险不明显的空间分布特征。
Objective To understand the effect of spatial PM_ (2.5) exposure on daily deaths of residents and its spatial distribution in Guangzhou. Methods Daily PM_ (2.5) daily data, meteorological data and daily death data of residents at 31 atmospheric monitoring stations in 12 districts (prefecture-level cities) in Guangzhou from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014 were collected. The time series analysis method of Kriging interpolation model and distributed lag nonlinear model were used to assess and analyze the PM 2.5 pollution in the whole city and 12 administrative districts respectively and its impact on daily death of residents. Results During the study period, the annual average exposure concentration of PM 2.5 in the whole city was 49.5 ± 25.6 μg / m 3, showing the characteristics of PM 2.5 pollution in the west and south areas and relatively low northeast area. The lagged cumulative maximum effect RR of exposure and daily total non-fatal death was 1.017 (1.001, 1.034; 95% CI); PM 2.5 exposure in Baiyun District, Conghua District, Nansha District, Yuexiu District and Liwan District was The best hysteresis effect of accidental death RR range 1.010 ~ 1.014 (this is the range of RR instead of 95% CI), and the lag cumulative maximum effect RR range 1.010 ~ 1.057 (this is the RR range of each district instead of 95% CI ). The best lag effect of PM_ (2.5) exposure and daily death of cardiovascular diseases in Conghua, Nansha, Yuexiu and Liwan districts was from 1.006 to 1.021 (this was the RR range of each district, not the 95% CI ), The lag cumulative maximum effect RR range 1.017 ~ 1.059 (this is the range of RR values, rather than 95% CI); Nansha District and Yuexiu District PM 2.5 exposure and daily mortality of the best lag effect of RR The values were 1.004 and 1.034 respectively, and the lag cumulative maximum effect RR was 1.018 and 1.110 respectively. Conclusion The PM2.5 exposure in different regions of Guangzhou has different effects on daily deaths of local residents. It shows that the areas with dense population, heavy traffic congestion in the south and north and high traffic congestion are not obvious in other areas Distribution characteristics.