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针对某矿山疏干诱发岩溶塌陷的现状,分析其塌陷分布特征。提出6个影响塌陷的控制参数。采用相关分析方法量化各控制参数对塌陷的影响。相关性分析结果表明,塌陷的主要影响因素是第4系土层厚度、水位变幅及岩溶含水层渗透系数,其中岩溶含水层渗透系数对塌陷的影响最显著。应用Logistic回归方法,建立岩溶塌陷预测模型。划分出矿区塌陷危险区的具体空间位置,共有3个区域:高危区(渗透系数大于5 m/d);危险区(渗透系数为2.5～5 m/d);活跃区(渗透系数小于2.5 m/d)。
Aiming at the status quo of karst collapse induced by sparse drying in some mines, the characteristics of collapse distribution are analyzed. Six control parameters affecting collapse were proposed. Correlation analysis was used to quantify the effect of various control parameters on collapse. Correlation analysis shows that the main factors affecting the collapse are the thickness of the Quaternary, the amplitude of water level and the permeability coefficient of karst aquifer, of which the permeability coefficient of karst aquifer has the most significant impact on the collapse. Logistic regression method was used to establish prediction model of karst collapse. The danger zone (permeability coefficient is 2.5-5 m / d); active zone (the permeability coefficient is less than 2.5 m / d) / d).