纵坑切梢小蠹预测预报研究，采用聚集信息素诱集法、有效虫口基数法、云南松物候观测法进行发生期及发生量中短期测报，准确率达到８５％以上，在此基础上建立了发生期及发生量的计算机测报模型。确定蠹害林分内平均受害梢率４．７％，平均受害株率５．１％，平均枯死率０．５％为蠹害林分的防治指标临界值，在此指标下，可以不进行防治；根据发生量测报方法及防治指标在小蠹发生区进行多点测报即可确定小蠹发生区、发生范围及面积 The study on the prediction and prediction of Pinctada fulvarius showed that the accuracy of the detection was up to 85% in the short-term and medium-term by the methods of aggregation pheromone trapping, effective insect population base observation and Yunnan Pinus spectabilis observation, and based on this, The occurrence and occurrence of the computer measurement model. To determine the average damage rate of pests in the forest stand 4.7%, the average victim strain rate of 5.1%, the average lethal rate of 0.5% of the threshold for the prevention and control of moth damage, under this indicator may not be Prevention and control; according to the method of occurrence of measurement methods and prevention and control indicators in the occurrence of small beetle area more measured to determine the occurrence of beetles area, the scope and area