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利用投入产出分析方法,结合城乡居民生活消费数据,测算了1995年～2004年中国城镇居民生活消费诱发的完全能源消耗。研究结果显示:①1995年～2004年,中国城镇居民生活消费诱发的完全能耗占一次能源消耗总量的比例从19%增加到30%,人均完全生活能耗从656kg标准煤增加到1040kg标准煤,其中,由生活消费品支出诱发的间接能耗占完全生活能耗的比例从69%上升到79%;②不同收入阶层和不同省区的城镇居民消费诱发的人均能耗存在显著差异,高收入阶层和经济发达的沿海省区城镇居民生活消费诱发的完全能耗远高于中低收入阶层和内陆地区,前者的能耗增长速度也快于后者;③以交通出行和居住消费为特征的生活方式转变是诱发能耗增加的重要因素,从全国平均看,居住消费和交通支出诱发的能耗占完全生活能耗的比例2004年达到41%;不同收入阶层和不同区域之间城镇居民居住消费和交通支出诱发的能耗存在着较大差异,高收入阶层和经济发达地区远高于中低收入阶层和中西部地区;④1995年～2004年,全国城镇人均完全生活能耗由于能源强度下降减少了313kg标准煤,如无能源强度下降,人均完全生活能耗将达到697kg标准煤。能源强度下降对高收入阶层和沿海地区的能耗降低效果尤为明显;⑤未来低收入阶层和欠发达区域的生活消费增加将会诱发完全生活能耗的进一步增长。改善民生、保障居民生活消费需要维持一定数量的能耗,降低能源强度对于控制能耗和温室气体排放至关重要,与此同时,需要引导高收入阶层和经济发达地区转变消费模式,积极发展低碳生活方式。
Using the input-output analysis method and the urban and rural residents’ living consumption data, the total energy consumption induced by domestic consumption of urban residents in China from 1995 to 2004 was measured. The results show that: (1) From 1995 to 2004, the proportion of total energy consumed by urban residents in China’s total primary energy consumption increased from 19% to 30%, and the per capita total energy consumption increased from 656kg of standard coal to 1040kg of standard coal , Of which, the proportion of indirect energy consumption to total energy consumption induced by spending on consumer goods rose from 69% to 79%; ② The per capita energy consumption of urban residents in different income groups and provinces has significant differences, and the high income The complete energy consumption induced by urban residents’ living consumption in the strata and economically developed coastal provinces is much higher than that in the middle and low income groups and the inland areas, and the former is also faster than the latter in terms of energy consumption; ③ It is characterized by traffic travel and residential consumption The lifestyle change is an important factor in inducing an increase in energy consumption. From the national average, the proportion of energy consumption induced by residential consumption and transportation expenditure in total energy consumption reached 41% in 2004; urban residents with different income levels and between different regions There is a big difference in the energy consumption induced by residential consumption and transportation expenditure. The high-income and economically developed areas are much higher than those in the middle and low-income groups and the central and western regions. To 2004, China’s urban per capita energy consumption entirely due to the reduction in energy intensity reduced by 313kg of standard coal, without the reduction in energy intensity, energy consumption per capita will reach full life 697kg of standard coal. The declining energy intensity is particularly significant for the energy consumption reduction in high-income and coastal areas; (5) The increase in living expenses in the future low-income and underdeveloped regions will induce further increase in total energy consumption. To improve people’s livelihood and protect residents’ living consumption, it is necessary to maintain a certain amount of energy consumption and reduce energy intensity to control energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, it is necessary to guide high-income groups and economically developed areas to shift consumption patterns and actively develop low Carbon lifestyle.