Prediction of delayed graft function using different scoring algorithms: A single-center experience

来源 :World Journal of Transplantation | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:lixinlixin2008
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
AIM To compare the performance of 3 published delayed graftfunction(DGF) calculators that compute the theoretical risk of DGF for each patient.METHODS This single-center,retrospective study included 247 consecutive kidney transplants from a deceased donor.These kidney transplantations were performed at our institution between January 2003 and December 2012.We compared the occurrence of observed DGF in our cohort with the predicted DGF according to three different published calculators. The accuracy of the calculators was evaluated by means of the c-index(receiver operating characteristic curve).RESULTS DGF occurred in 15.3% of the transplants under study.The c index of the Irish calculator provided an area under the curve(AUC) of 0.69 indicating an acceptable level of prediction,in contrast to the poor performance of the Jeldres nomogram(AUC = 0.54) and the Chapal nomogram(AUC = 0.51). With the Irish algorithm the predicted DGF risk and the observed DGF probabilities were close. The mean calculated DGF risk was significantly different between DGF-positive and DGF-negative subjects(P < 0.0001). However,at the level of the individual patient the calculated risk of DGF overlapped very widely with ranges from 10% to 51% for recipients with DGF and from 4% to 56% for those without DGF.The sensitivity,specificity and positive predictive value of a calculated DGF risk ≥ 30% with the Irish nomogram were 32%,91% and 38%. CONCLUSION Predictive models for DGF after kidney transplantation are performant in the population in which they were derived,but less so in external validations. AIM To compare the performance of 3 published delayed graft function (DGF) calculators that compute the theoretical risk of DGF for each patient. METHODS This single-center, retrospective study included 247 consecutive kidney transplants from a deceased donor. These kidney transplantations were performed at our institution between January 2003 and December 2012. We compared the occurrence of observed DGF in our cohort with the predicted DGF according to three different published calculators. The accuracy of the calculators was evaluated by means of the c-index (receiver operating characteristic curve). RESULTS DGF occurred in 15.3% of the transplants under study. C index of the Irish calculator provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69 indicating an acceptable level of prediction, in contrast to the poor performance of the Jeldres nomogram (AUC = 0.54) and the Chapal nomogram (AUC = 0.51). With the Irish algorithm the predicted DGF risk and the observed DGF probabilities were close. The me The calculated DGF risk was significantly different between DGF-positive and DGF-negative subjects (P <0.0001). However, at the level of the individual patient the calculated risk of DGF overlapped very wide with ranges from 10% to 51% for recipients with DGF and from 4% to 56% for those without DGF. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of a calculated DGF risk ≥ 30% with the Irish nomogram were 32%, 91% and 38%. CONCLUSION Predictive models for DGF after kidney transplantation are performant in the population in which they were derived, but less so in external validations.
其他文献
面对又一次的失意,我哭了,我承认自己很脆弱。想让眼泪回到心灵的源泉,可它还是流了下来,肆无忌惮地爬满了整个面颊。  狼牙月,伊人憔悴……  我为谁而憔悴,为谁而欢乐?我努力使自己每天活得简单些,再简单些,可到头来,伤了自己,也伤了别人。  快些仰起那苍白的脸,快些松开那紧皱的眉。所有的疑问还没有来得及成为疑问,或者刚成为疑问还没有来得及作答,我们就已经长大。该来的来着,该去的去着,就在这来去中间,
-1-5月,飞往广东。从农业氛围浓郁的北方,到工业发达的南方,中间隔着数千公里的距离。在西北,黄土高原之上,我的故乡,一望无际的麦苗正发芽抽穗,在南方,我要去的地方,加工制
如果你是一个80后,阅读文前最好请先对号入座:你文化低、技能差,只能在中低端劳动力商场上找苦,脏、累的工作,因怕苦累而索性躺在家中靠父母养活; 2.你大学毕业,对就业过于挑
久违了的“洋话连篇”栏目又和大家见面了,不知大家的英语水平是否大有长进了呢?由《小学科技》杂志和全国英语能力竞赛组委会上海考区办公室、上海师范大学外语学院联合举办
南京总医院,国家肾脏疾病临床医学研究中心,全军肾脏病研究所,是目前国内规模最大、综合实力最强的肾脏病诊治、研究和人才培养中心之一(http://www.njszb.com),在国内有广泛
风起于浮萍之末,月徘徊于斗牛之间。山高月小,水落石出。——题外话在商场里他在朝阳商场的二楼走了好几个来回。朝阳商场是一家便民商场,售卖日用百货,二楼主营的是鞋帽服装
赤沙镇初级中学位于宝鸡市陈仓区西部山区,始建于1978年。学校占地面积6780平方米,有教学实验楼和教师宿办楼各一幢,有物理、生化实验室、仪器室、准备室、微机室、广播室和
中国诗歌缺少市场,当然有培育问题,更有千百年形成的消费误区:一是小儿背诵。家家的小宝贝,都上一门课:背诵古诗。不管有无诗才,也不管能否爱之受之,背!直背得在幼儿园能诵,
老舍先生对孩子的教育方法很特别。到现在老舍先生的长子舒乙回忆起小时候的事情,仍记忆犹新。 Mr. Laoser’s education method for children is very special. Until now,
从杨莎妮的两篇短篇小说可以看出,作家的野心已超越构思情节而走向挖掘情绪与解读心理,她试图抓住人们不断压抑而又常常闪现的欲望,去展现看似平庸无聊的人生背后潜意识汹涌