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2010年3月份以来,猪肉价格波动对CPI周期波动的动态冲击效应成为理论界关注的热点,归纳而言主要有支持论、短期冲击论和否定论三种代表性观点。本文在2000年1月至2010年6月间月度统计数据基础上,运用增益谱频域分析法,检验了猪肉、肉禽及其制品、粮食、水产品、鲜蛋、鲜果、鲜菜7种食品价格周期波动对CPI周期波动的增益贡献。结果发现:猪肉价格周期波动对CPI周期波动仅具有短期偶发冲击作用,其对CPI周期波动增益贡献在13%～18%之间;粮食价格和水产品价格波动对CPI周期波动的增益贡献大于猪肉价格波动的冲击贡献;鲜蛋价格和鲜菜价格波动的冲击效应具有明显的节假日特征。建立核心食品类CPI制度,降低肉禽及其制品价格占食品类的权重对稳定物价周期波动,具有一定的现实意义和政策价值。
Since March 2010, the dynamic impact of pork price fluctuations on the cyclical fluctuations of CPI has become a hot topic in the theoretical circle. In summary, there are mainly three representative views: support theory, short-term impact theory and negative theory. Based on the monthly statistics from January 2000 to June 2010, this paper uses the frequency-domain analysis of gain spectrum to test seven kinds of foods such as pork, meat and poultry and their products, grain, aquatic products, fresh eggs, fresh fruits and fresh vegetables The contribution of price cycle fluctuation to the gain of CPI cycle fluctuation. The results showed that the fluctuation of pork price had only a short-term sporadic impact on CPI cycle fluctuations, which contributed 13% -18% of the CPI cycle fluctuation gain; the fluctuation contribution of food price and aquatic product price to CPI cycle fluctuation was greater than that of pork The impact of price fluctuations contributed to the impact of fresh egg prices and fresh vegetable price fluctuations have obvious holiday characteristics. It is of practical significance and policy value to establish CPI system of core foodstuffs and reduce the price of meat and poultry and their products accounting for the volatility of the stable price cycle.