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本文对上海市住宅房地产价格的影响因素进行了理论和实证分析,着重讨论了代表供给的开发商投资额因素,采用VAR模型、脉冲响应等方法对上海市场近8年的月度数据进行了实证分析,发现投资额与房价的关系有悖于一般经济学原理,即投资的扩大刺激了价格的上升,再加之长期供给缺乏弹性的特点,使房价无法收敛,这是导致上海住宅价格居高不下的一个重要原因。同时也考察了人均收入、汇率、政府政策等变量,具体解释了上海住宅房价持续升高的原因。
This paper analyzes the influencing factors of residential real estate prices in Shanghai theoretically and empirically, and emphatically discusses the factors that affect the investment of developers, and empirically analyzes the monthly data of nearly 8 years in Shanghai using VAR model, impulse response and other methods , Found that the relationship between investment and housing prices is contrary to the general economic principle that the expansion of investment stimulated price increases, coupled with the long-term supply of inelastic characteristics, so that prices can not converge, which led to high residential prices in Shanghai An important reason. Also examined variables such as per capita income, exchange rates, government policies and other specific reasons for the Shanghai housing prices continued to rise.