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准确的进行区块抽油机井躺井预测对油田作业费用预算、作业安排、产量计划意义重大。本文根据抽油机井躺井随机性和突发性强的特点,将灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型相结合,利用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对油田现场的原始数据进行趋势化处理,利用马尔可夫预测模型计算预测值的状态转移概率,由此形成了考虑随机因素影响的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。现场试验证明,该方法计算精度较高,实用性强。
Accurate block sucker wells wells predict the cost of oil field operations budget, operating arrangements, production plans of great significance. In this paper, according to the characteristics of randomness and suddenness of well lay in oil well, gray GM (1,1) forecasting model and Markov forecasting model are combined. By using gray GM (1,1) forecasting model, The original data is trending and the Markov forecasting model is used to calculate the state transition probabilities of the predictive values. Thus, a gray Markov forecasting model considering the influence of stochastic factors is formed. Field test proves that the method has higher calculation accuracy and practicality.