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目的为了正确制定我院2006年的工作计划,在我院内部强化医院住院管理和人力、物力资源分配,有利于提高工作效率,减少资源浪费,进一步提高我院的经济效益和社会效益。通过对我院近10年入院人数的动态分析,以此作为正确制定医院发展规划的依据,需要对2006年的入院人数进行趋势预测和季节预测。方法采集了我院1996年～2005年10年间入院患者住院人数,运用指数曲线模型预测我院2006年的入院人数。结果2006年我院入院人数为10358人,入院人数具有季节性。结论增加入院人数就应注重提高医疗业务水平、诊疗技术、医疗服务质量,有效运用医院资源。
Objectives In order to correctly formulate the work plan of our hospital in 2006, we will strengthen hospital inpatient management and the distribution of human and material resources in our hospital, which will help improve work efficiency, reduce waste of resources, and further improve the economic and social benefits of our hospital. Through the dynamic analysis of the number of hospital admissions in the past 10 years as the basis for the correct formulation of the hospital’s development plan, it is necessary to carry out trend forecasting and seasonal forecasting for the number of admissions in 2006. Methods The number of hospitalized patients admitted in our hospital during the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 was collected. The number of admissions to hospitals in 2006 was estimated using an exponential curve model. Results In 2006, the number of hospital admissions was 10,358, and the number of admissions was seasonal. Conclusion The increase in the number of admissions should focus on improving the level of medical services, diagnosis and treatment techniques, and the quality of medical services, and the effective use of hospital resources.