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小麦条锈病的发生及大区流行与病原菌的远程传播密切相关。预测小麦条锈病大区流行的关键是搞清病原菌的远程传播路线和孢子云浓度变化规律。气流是菌源传播的主要动力,因此,气流运动的物理模型是对小麦条锈病菌远程传播事例分析的有力工具。本研究利用再分析格点资料(NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data),基于HYSPLIT-4模式,对历史上我国小麦条锈病菌远程传播的经典事例(分别发生于1960、1964、1975和1983年)进行了分析,着落区孢子浓度时间序列模拟结果与观察到病害发生前几天的降雨事件是相符的,结果表明小麦条锈病的远程传播及发生时间可通过计算大气环流运动来预测,病原菌孢子的沉降除由于孢子自身重力而引起的沉降外,很大程度上还受到降雨引起的湿沉降的影响。HYS-PLIT-4模式可用于探讨我国小麦条锈病区域间菌源传播关系问题,进行病害的预测预报,进一步指导我国小麦条锈病越夏和越冬调查以及菌源区综合治理和小麦品种布局。该研究在方法和技术上也可为研究其它病原菌远程传播提供借鉴。
The occurrence of wheat stripe rust and the epidemic of the area are closely related to the remote transmission of pathogens. The key to forecasting the prevalence of stripe rust in wheat is to find out the long-distance transmission path of pathogens and the variation of spore cloud concentration. Airflow is the main driving force for the spread of bacterial sources. Therefore, the physical model of airflow movement is a powerful tool to analyze the case of remote transmission of wheat stripe rust. Based on the HYSPLIT-4 model, we used the NCEP / NCAR Reanalysis Data to study the classic case of remote transmission of wheat stripe rust in China in 1960, 1964, 1975 and 1983 respectively The results of time series simulation of the spore concentration in the landing zone coincided with the observed rainfall events in the days before the disease occurred. The results showed that the remote transmission and occurrence time of the stripe rust could be predicted by the general circulation motion. The settlement of the pathogen spore Due to the subsidence caused by the spores’ own gravity, it is also largely affected by the wet deposition caused by rainfall. HYS-PLIT-4 model can be used to explore the relationship between bacterial stripe rust transmission and the prediction of disease in our country, and further guide the investigation of wheat stripe rust over the summer and winter, as well as the comprehensive control of the bacterial source area and the wheat variety distribution. The research method and technology can also provide reference for the study of remote transmission of other pathogens.