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[目的 ] 探讨老年人躯体健康损害及死亡的预测因子 ,为老年保健服务计划的制定提供信息。 [方法 ] 对 145 3名社区老年人近 3年的纵向观察资料 ,应用Logistic回归模型进行分析。 [结果 ] 基线时年龄 ,患心脏病、高血压病 ,疾病严重程度及躯体健康状况可预测近 3年内躯体健康的高损害。基线时年龄、职业、疾病严重程度、日常活动能力损害可预测近 3年内死亡的发生。 [结论 ] 社区老年保健的重点对象为高龄老人、无职业者、患严重疾病尤其是患心血管疾病者。社区老年保健的首要任务是预防和阻止躯体健康和日常活动能力的损害 ,加强老年心血管疾病的人群防治。
[Objective] To explore the predictors of physical health impairment and death in the elderly and to provide information for the development of an elderly health care service plan. [Methods] The longitudinal observation data of 145 3 elderly people in the community for the past 3 years were analyzed using Logistic regression model. [Results] Baseline age, heart disease, hypertension, disease severity, and physical health can predict high damage to physical health in the last 3 years. At baseline, age, occupation, severity of illness, and daily activity impairment can predict the occurrence of death in the last 3 years. [Conclusion] The focus of the elderly care in the community is senior citizens, non-professionals, and those suffering from serious diseases, especially those suffering from cardiovascular diseases. The primary task of community aged care is to prevent and prevent the damage to physical health and daily activities, and to strengthen prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases in the elderly.