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笔者在单位根检验、自相关检验、协整检验的基础上,用广义差分法和误差修正模型建立各变量间长期和短期均衡关系,实证分析人民币名义汇率的变动是否会对中国畜产品进口额产生影响以及产生怎样的影响。结果表明:人民币升值短期会导致中国畜产品进口额增加,长期却使畜产品进口额减少;中国农产品进口价格和国际农产品价格长期上升会使中国进口更多的畜产品;代表中国经济景气度的中国制造业采购经理指数也会促进中国畜产品进口,但影响不显著。
On the basis of unit root test, self-correlation test and co-integration test, the author establishes a long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between variables using generalized difference method and error correction model, and empirically analyzes whether the change of RMB nominal exchange rate will affect the import of China’s livestock products Impact and what impact it will have. The results show that the appreciation of the renminbi in the short term will lead to an increase in the import of livestock products in China and a long-term reduction in the import of livestock products. The long-term rise of the import prices of Chinese agricultural products and international agricultural products will allow China to import more livestock products. On behalf of the Chinese economy, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index will also promote China’s livestock products imports, but the impact is not significant.