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从甘肃省最新确定的5个重点扶贫区域中选取了6个市(州)作为典型地理区域,以统计资料和数据为基础,建立了这些区域的灾害频发度和贫困度测度指标体系,并运用主成分分析方法,研究了近10年来灾害频发度、贫困度时间演替轨迹和分布特征,分析了在全球气候变化背景下甘肃省不同地理区域灾害频发与贫困之间的耦合关系。结果表明:甘肃省不同地理区域贫困度随着时间的变化呈下降趋势;不同地理区域灾害频发度总体上保持着比较高的程度,灾害频发度的高低与时间不存在相关性,而与灾害类型、灾害发生次数和灾害持续时间有关;各地理区域灾害频发与贫困两者之间的耦合关系很强,特别是受气候变暖的影响,旱灾频发且持续时间较长,以及这些地理区域固有的高脆弱性等因素共同加剧了贫困程度,使贫困问题比较突出,灾害与贫困易形成恶性循环。
Six cities (prefectures) were selected as the typical geographical areas from the five key poverty alleviation areas recently identified in Gansu Province. Based on the statistical data and data, indicators of frequency and degree of disasters in these areas were established Using the principal component analysis method, the temporal succession trajectory and distribution characteristics of disasters frequency and degree of poverty were studied in the past 10 years. The coupling relation between frequent disasters and poverty in different geographical regions of Gansu Province under the background of global climate change was analyzed. The results show that the poverty degree in different geographic regions of Gansu Province decreases with time; the frequency of disasters in different geographic regions is generally maintained at a relatively high level, and the frequency of disasters does not correlate with time, The types of disasters, the number of disasters and the duration of the disasters; the coupling between the frequency of disasters and poverty in each geographical area is very strong, especially due to the effects of climate warming, frequent droughts and long durations, and these Factors such as the inherent high vulnerability of geographical regions have exacerbated the level of poverty, made the problem of poverty more prominent and facilitated a vicious circle of disasters and poverty.