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中等收入陷阱研究存在一些误区,造成了人为的结果偏差和无谓的争论分歧。本文基于世界银行国家分类标准,根据其国民收入统计Atlas方法解构经济跨越分析框架。运用该分析框架回顾梳理中国经济发展跨越历程,为现阶段中国跨越中等收入陷阱提供历史视角,并重点讨论汇率变量在经济跨越不同阶段的作用,而汇率作为指示经济发展趋势和宏观经济金融管理状况的重要指标,其作用在先前的有关文献中基本被忽略。最后对中国何时能跨越中等收入陷阱、两个百年奋斗目标能否实现进行测算,并提出相关政策建议。本文厘正了一些普遍存在的错误认识,构造经济跨越分析框架、历史分析视角、挖掘汇率的作用是主要创新点,对中国发展阶段的划分以及经济增长与汇率的关系亦得出有意义的结论。
There are some misunderstandings in the study of the middle-income trap, resulting in artificial deviation and unnecessary controversy. Based on the World Bank National Taxonomy, this paper deconstructs the economic leapfrog analysis framework based on its Atlas method of national income statistics. Using this framework, we review the process of China’s economic development and provide a historical perspective for China to transcend the middle-income trap. We focus on the role of exchange rate variables in different stages of economic development. As an indicator of economic development and macroeconomic and financial management Of the important indicators, its role in the previous relevant literature is basically ignored. Finally, when can China surpass the middle income trap, two centuries-old goal can be measured, and put forward relevant policy recommendations. This paper corrects some ubiquitous misunderstandings, constructs the framework of economic leapfrogging analysis, historical analysis and the function of mining exchange rate as the main innovations. It also draws a meaningful conclusion on the division of China’s development stage and the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate .