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后危机时代,中国经济增长依然强劲,以投资为代表的扩张模式将延续传统增长动力,全年增长仍可维持在潜在增长水平之上。另一方面,强力的宏观政策激励后,资产泡沫与通货膨胀阴影挥之不去,系统性风险逐步加大,但不至于失控,2011年通胀风险在货币继续正常化条件下将有所回落。后危机时代全球经济表现出了一系列典型化事实,全球范围内金融货币和实体经济的分离、大宗商品的重新定义等,决定了发达国家与新兴市场国家之间再均衡的必然性。在此大背景下,中国经济结构的再均衡过程应该更集中在机制、体制和供给政策,优化投资结构,促进城市化和服务业的深度发展,探索一条可持续的增长之路。
In the post-crisis era, China’s economic growth is still robust. The expansion mode represented by investment will continue its traditional growth momentum and its annual growth will remain above its potential growth level. On the other hand, after the strong macroeconomic policy stimulus, asset bubbles and inflation shadow linger, systematic risk gradually increased, but not out of control, inflation risk in 2011 will continue to normalize the currency under the conditions of some decline. In the post-crisis era, the global economy showed a series of typical facts. The separation of the financial currency and the real economy on a global scale and the redefinition of commodities have determined the inevitability of rebalancing between developed and emerging market countries. Against this backdrop, the process of rebalancing China’s economic structure should focus more on mechanisms, systems and supply policies, optimize the investment structure, promote the in-depth development of urbanization and service industries, and explore a sustainable growth path.