本文以安徽省阜阳市１９７３～１９９３年棉铃虫发生趋势资料为原始数据，选用太阳黑子和自相关因子为预测因子，应用逐步回归分析技术，建立了阜阳市棉铃虫发生趋势的长期预测模型。通过对１９８５～１９９３年拟合检验，历史符合率达８８．８９％，对１９９４～１９９７年试报，准确率达１００％，为棉铃虫发生趋势的长期预报提供了一种新的研究途径。 In this paper, the trend data of the occurrence of H. armigera from 1973 to 1993 in Fuyang City, Anhui Province were taken as the original data. The forecasting factors of sunspots and autocorrelation factors were selected as predictors. The long-term prediction model of the occurrence trend of H. armigera was established in Fuyang by applying stepwise regression analysis. Through the fitting test from 1985 to 1993, the historical coincidence rate reached 88.89%, and the accuracy rate of the test was 100% from 1994 to 1997, which provided a new approach for the long-term prediction of the occurrence trend of cotton bollworm.