论文部分内容阅读
中等收入阶段是一个容易导致发展路径出现分歧的阶段。目前,拉美已成为中等收入陷阱的典型案例,而晚于拉美步入中等收入阶段的日本、韩国、中国台湾与香港地区却经历了持续的经济增长并在短期内实现了世界瞩目的跨越。可见,并没有必然掉入陷阱的铁律。为什么同样历经中等收入阶段却出现了截然相反的结果?既有文献的讨论主要是基于现代增长理论框架集中于“中等收入陷阱”的理论分析或国际比较。本文从公共支出的视角出发,通过比较分析拉美和东亚相关国家(地区)中等收入阶段的公共支出规模与结构,发现适度的政府支出规模是跨越中等收入阶段的保障,良好的教育投入规模结构是跨越的前提条件、研发支出是跨越的动力源泉、适度社会保障水平是跨越的有效保障、完善的基础设施建设是跨越的重要基础。
The middle income stage is a stage that can easily lead to divergences in the development path. At present, Latin America has become a typical case of a middle-income trap. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong, later in Latin America’s middle-income stage, have undergone sustained economic growth and have achieved world-wide leaps in the short term. Can be seen, there is no iron law inevitable fall into the trap. Why the same after the middle income phase but there is a diametrically opposite result? The discussion of existing literature is mainly based on the theoretical framework of modern growth theory focused on “middle income trap ” theoretical analysis or international comparison. From the perspective of public expenditure, through comparative analysis of the scale and structure of public expenditure in middle-income countries in Latin America and East Asia, we find that moderate scale of government expenditure is the guarantee to cross the middle-income stage. The scale structure of good education input is Leaping preconditions, R & D expenditures are the source of power for leaps and bounds, the appropriate level of social security is an effective guarantee across, and sound infrastructure construction is an important foundation for leapfrogging.