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近几个月来,国内新闻媒体对俄国经济状况说法不一。有的称俄国经济已经开始回升,有的说俄国经济不可救药。事实真相到底如何呢?1993年八九月间,我应邀到俄国进行了短期的实地考察,同各方面人士交换了看法。这里介绍一下我所了解的情况。(一)自1990年以来,俄罗斯工业生产持续下降。据俄国家统计局公报,1993年第一季度工业总产值比1992年同期下降了19%。1993年前6个月工业总产值比1992年同期下降18%。下降的速度减慢了。但是,据专家们分析,即使1993年工业生产比1992年同期下降15%,和3年前相比,下降幅度也将超过40%。
In recent months, domestic news media have different opinions on the economic situation in Russia. Some say the Russian economy has started to pick up, and some say the Russian economy is hopeless. In fact, in August-September 1993, I was invited to conduct a short field trip to Russia and exchanged views with people from various quarters. Here’s what I know about it. (1) Since 1990, Russia’s industrial production has continued to decline. According to the Bulletin of the Russian National Bureau of Statistics, the total industrial output in the first quarter of 1993 dropped 19% over the same period of 1992. In the first six months of 1993, the total industrial output value dropped by 18% over the same period of 1992. Declining speed slowed down. However, according to experts’ analysis, even though the industrial production in 1993 dropped 15% over the same period of 1992, the decline will exceed 40% as compared with three years ago.