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为了提高终端空域航空器到达时间预测的准确性和排序队列的稳定性,本文从分析影响航空器预计到达时间ETA的不确定因素出发,建立了同一机型航空器过同一边界点到达时间的概率模型,提出了一种通过实际飞行数据计算到达时间的概率方法,利用贝叶斯网络计算各影响因素对ETA影响程度.实验结果表明,用概率方法预测到达时间具有简单易操作且准确性高的特点.利用影响程度作为权重进行修正并量化了ETA的不确定性,有助于改善进场航班排序队列的稳定性.
In order to improve the accuracy of predicting the arrival time of terminal airspace and the stability of ordered queue, this paper sets up the probabilistic model of the arrival time of the same aircraft on the same boundary point by analyzing the uncertainties that affect the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of the aircraft, A probability method to calculate the arrival time through the actual flight data is used to calculate the influence degree of each influencing factor on the ETA using the Bayesian network.The experimental results show that the probability method can predict the arrival time with a simple and easy operation and high accuracy. The degree of influence is corrected as a weight and the uncertainty of ETA is quantified, which helps to improve the stability of in-flight ranking queue.