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一、下半年市场呈现正常稳步增长态势。自去年第二季度起,市场从“疲软”的谷底开始缓慢回升,今年以来上升速度加快,下半年将进入正常增长,如无特殊原因,不会出现剧烈的波动。预测今年社会商品零售总额为9400亿元左右,增长14%,其中下半年4815亿元,增长14.2%。对社会商品零售总额预测的主要依据是: 1.粮油提价影响社会商品零售额上升约2个百分点,比去年增加100多亿元。 2.今年社会固定资产投资安排约5000亿元,比去年增长12%,增加消费需求200亿元以上。 3.松动社会集团购买的控制,如办公用品、小轿车等,预测今年社会集团购买力将增加100多亿元。
First, the market showed normal and steady growth in the second half of the year. Since the second quarter of last year, the market began to recover slowly from the bottom of the “weakness”. The rate of increase has accelerated since the beginning of this year, and it will have normal growth in the second half of the year. If there is no special reason, there will be no drastic fluctuations. The total retail sales of social goods this year are forecast to be around 940 billion yuan, an increase of 14%, of which 481.5 billion yuan in the second half, up 14.2%. The main basis for the prediction of the total retail sales of social goods is as follows: 1. The increase in grain and oil prices has affected retail sales of social goods by about 2 percentage points, an increase of more than 10 billion yuan over last year. 2. This year, social investment in fixed assets is about 500 billion yuan, an increase of 12% over last year, and an increase in consumer demand of more than 20 billion yuan. 3. Loosen the control purchased by social groups, such as office supplies, cars, etc. It is predicted that the purchasing power of social groups will increase by more than 10 billion yuan this year.